Verdict 2009-Debarshi Dey

Verdict 2009.

-Debaeshi Dey

With Barrack Obama's making it to the White House in November 2008, the citizens of US told the world that they chose hope over fear, a measure of idealism over realism, unity and cooperation over divisiveness and unilateralism, and most importantly to change the way the business of politics is carried out, to rid it of its Machiavellian character to a significant extent, if not completely. Though it is too early to decide whether the President have succeeded in living upto the expectations and the trust and faith his nation has reposed in him, if not fully, then in a substantial way, there is no denying of the fact that he has generated an extraordinary optimism and hopefulness, and a sense of involvement and responsibility in the people within the borders of his country, and also to an extent outside it .

Though it will be too simplistic to characterize the verdict that the Indian people gave in the summer of 2009 in such plain terms, and in spite of the extreme complexities inherent in the Indian polity, there are some very clear and succinct message that comes out eloquently from the mandate of the Indian people. Let us glean them out one by one.
1. There is a strong temptation to characterize a mandate as Anti-incumbency (if the party in power is voted out) or a mandate negating anti-incumbency (if the Party in power is reelected). As much as we wish to see it as a mandate for the UPA, which it well might be in certain areas, it cannot be held for the entire country. Last time there was a National wave in favor of a party or an alliance was in 1984, the sympathy wave after Indira Gandhi was assassinated. Since then we have not seen any such wave in favor of any Party or Allaince, and 2009 has not been an exception. This time though the Congress have got more than 200 seats ( the first time in 25 years that a single party crossed the double century mark), in many major states, Madhyapradesh, Karnataka, Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Gujarat, the Congress or the UPA have got either very few seats or considerably less seats than their opponents. It is curious to see that though this time in most states the people have voted in favour of the ruling party in that state ( all the above mentioned state, together with Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Kashmir, Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, etc), but again here there are big exceptions: Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. So my first observation is Verdict 2009 is much more complex to simply classify it as either negating anti-incumbency factor or accepting it.
2. The second observation I can make is that the electorate has refused to be taken for granted. Whether they are Dalits of UP whose allegiance to Mayawati was unquestioned, or the rural people of West Bengal who were taken to be rock solid foundation of the Red citadel, or the people of Tamil Nadu who were as if mechanically expected to alternate their loyalty every election between the two Dravidian parties, they have all emphatically made it clear, they might be voiceless but they are not mindless. They have more than clearly articulated that they are not creatures of habit but individuals with expectations and aspirations.
3.Verdict 2009 made it clear clever and cunning arithmetic will not work, not always.The naked opportunism exhibited by Mahakutami consisting of TDP, TRS, and the Left parties outdid all other pre-poll alliance in showing their ideological and political bankruptcy. Here was Chandrababu Naidu, the poster boy of American brand of capitalism, rubbing shoulders with the likes of Yechuries and Prakash Karats, whose Raison d'etre in politics is Anti-capitalism and Anti-Americanism. If that was not enough, they were joined by TRS, whose main demand is to carve out Telengana out of AP, which have been bitterly opposed by the same Naidu. And Karat's CPI(M) is completely opposed to granting statehood to Gorkhaland in West Bengal, where they are in power.
4. Verdict 2009 unquestionably proved development delivers. If the 90s were the era of Identity politics (whether caste or religious) with its impact spilling over the first part of the first decade of the 21st century, it started loosing its grip a few years ago, giving way to Poltics of Development ( so much so, the poster boy of Hindutva has to make Development his USP and not Hindutwa). And by 2009 ,the Politics of Development is firmly established. This major shift is perhaps the best outcome of verdict 2009. Whether it is Nitish Kumar in Bihar, or Navin Pattnaik in Orissa or Sheela Dixit in Delhi, or Shivraj Singh Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh or Narendra Modi in Gujarat, the electorate has shown if one is honest and sincere in his effort to deliver Roti, Kapda aur Makan, they will not be dissappointed. But at the same time, they have shown that they are wise enough to call on the bluff of phoney development, as in the case of Buddhadev Bhattacharya in West Bengal.
5. Verdict 2009 reveals paradoxically, a growing thirst for new and young leadership on one hand, but apathy if not cynicism on the other, by a large section of the Electorate. If in significant parts of the country the voter turnout has been only about fifty percent, it is only more worrisome that in cities like Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore, Delhi ( with the exception of Kolkata) it is further less (Forty percent or a little more), even after a fervid celebrity endorsed campaign to go out and vote. The increasing disconnect and despair people are feeling with the politicians and the political process, though not good omen in a democracy, have been evident very clearly.
Finally, I would say that before the Election it was asked repeatedly, who will be India's Obama. I think what is more important, is India ready for an Obama ?

2009 India Election is victory for democracy

First of all, I would like to congratulate all of my fellow Indians for such a matured verdict that clearly demanded highest quality of performance from elected representatives--either you perform or perish.

Today morning when Sonia Gandhi and MonMahan Singh appeared in their first press conference after UPA was assured of a thumping victory, Sonia spoke very wisely-Indians electorates know what is the best for them. Despite sustained campaign of NDA to portray her as Christian, destroyer of Hinduism, clandestine anti-Indians, Indians clearly rested their logic with Congress campaign- me na Hindu hu, na Muslman, na Sikh -me Indian hu.. . However, on ground Congress's good governance that garnered an average growth of 7.5% GDP over last five year helped immensely to appeal their vote bank who too saw their bank balance and income rising. Even at lowest level, Congress initiated 100 days of compulsory work for BPL listed poors of India which did help them to cut corner over NDA. On the other hand Muslim vote banks consolidated behind Congress and its allies because the way Congress tackled Islamic terrorism without increasing Hindu-Muslim polarity in this country, minority of India has been assured a sense of security in Congress leadership. Minorities dumped the so called third and fourth alternatives whose leaders vacillated their choice around BJP.

The fact that BJP lost ground is deeply rooted in the same ailment of why communists became irrelevant in this election. These ideological based parties failed to update their ideology with the need of hour. Opposition to US-India nuclear deal was such an affair that exposed opportunism and immaturity of these parties living in the past. When people of India are facing 8 hours of power shortage on daily basis, industries are suffering from acute power cut, opposing such a deal which India needed badly to improve its energy security was suicidal for opposition.

It is interesting to note Indians have rejected both left and right wing despite in different forums, it is hard to find a centric supporter while there are no shortage of right and left wing loyalists. In the past, I wrote centric ideology has its own advantage in this modern world-because of 'no ideological backlog' they can catch the next train faster than the others. This is what happened with Congress and at the same time, they are attracting top professionals like Shashi Tharoor in their party rank to manage the public affairs better. Where as both the leftists and rightists are still looking for a correct party line that would sail them through. But their effort to find a party-line is tearing apart by inherent contradiction between pragmatism and outdated idealism.

I would like to speak a few words on abolition of the communists in this election-they have been reduced to 24 from 56. However, this is not abolition of leftist force because their substitute in UPA, Trinamul Congress from West Bengal vowed to pursue even more rigours left policies in the center. Question is, why this time West Bengal voted decisively against CPM? Was Nandigram and Singur responsible? Forcible land acquisition responsible?

While many may think so, unfortunately I can not share that opinion. CPM still could retain 30 of the seats in West Bengal, had they not been breaking up from UPA on a ground that was a total blow to West Bengal's development and industry image. While deciding the break-up, Bengal comrades warned Karat that this would eventually lead to TMC-INC alliance. Because if CPM-INC alliance in UPA would have remained intact, Mamata had no choice but either to fight on her own or allign with BJP-in which in either of the cases, she would not have won Muslim votebanks in West Bengal which is a deciding factor. As ex-speaker and expelled MP from CPM Somnath Chatterjee has pointed out today, I have long shared my opinion that CPM supremeo Prakash Karat is devoid of any leadership quality and he would ensure total destruction of CPM.
Instead of working for empowerment of deprived class in India, he wanted to champion a third front against Congress and BJP with the kind of leadership who are the most corrupt goons in Indian politics. CPI supremo Mr Bardhan's support for Mayabati's corruption made me obnoxious about degradation of ethical values of communist leadership. No wonder Indian people have thrown out both CPI and Mayabati's party. Not to mention even Karat was given same punishment for his hypocrit gesture. Nothing can be more laughable than Karat's claim of Mayabati and Joylalita as class friend and Congress as class enemy. He forgot people do not have a stomach to digest such jokes for a long time and therefore, Sujan Chakrabarty, one of his ex-MP who lost in left bastion of Jadavpur clearly criticized Karat's strategy of third front which was totally rejected by the people. Why Karat thought people of West Bengal would go by his line when he dumped the interest of West Bengal again and again from 2001 ? Many American corporations like Boeing, Disney wanted to set up their shop in West Bengal but they could not due to blind-anti American position of Prakash Karat who might have discovered the ghost of imperialism in disney cartoon as he discovered the same in civil Indo-American nuclear deal.

For Hinduvta or BJP, it was a different story. Advani didn't do anything as opposition leader in last 5 years-even lefts were more vocal opposition of Congress. UPA did fail in many grounds-more people registered under poverty line than ever before. They could not ensure 100days of work to the poorest of poor as promised. When CPM was conducting near genocidal attack on Nandigram, UPA did nothing since CPM was a partner. As a leader of opposition he came and soon forgot the incident. Congress also failed miserably on security issue-instead of pointing out mistakes, BJP took interest only in communal polarization. Worst came for BJP in Orissa when Hindu-Christian riot broke up-he could not take a decisive step to stop murderous Hinduvta goons. He has right to speak against ill-motivated religious conversion by the Christian missionaries but he can not mute himself against violence of worst kind. BJP never did anything to promote positive side of Indian spiritual tradition and instead always resorted to idenity based politics which people do not want at this moment.

However, to summarize, I will conclude with what Sonia Gandhi said-Indians know what is best for them. Democracy is the greatest filter of noise of the leadership.

Why BJP is losing in coalition politics?

BJD's exit from NDA is definitely the greatest bouncer for BJP. Or in the other words, it nailed the last but infinitely small vanishing hope of NDA wining 2009.

Time might be ripe for the BJP to do the soul searching. Why Biju or Chanrababu Naidu or Mamata Banerjee left their fleet? Why the regional players are seemingly having difficulty to keep the NDA tag? Why all of a sudden BJP is becoming untouchable in Indian politics as it was in 1980s? One should not forget that behind the success of NDA in the past was the success of these regional parties to pull themselves and BJP against Congress. These equations have drastically changed after Gujrat riot. Even after demolition of Babri Masjid, BJP was not that unacceptable among minority because after all it was a Masjid and not the Muslims. But genocide of the Muslims in Gujrat riot was definitely the most absinthal experience of the Indian minority and thereafter, NDA partners were abandoned by the minority in 2004 election. It costed them power or else they would have probably continued in NDA. Since then they tried to distance from NDA. BJP realized the difficulty with coalition partners and therefore started distancing themselves from Hinduvta politics after 2004 and aligned with issue based development. This worked out well for them. And BJP again started doing well in state assembly in Gujrat and Karntaka. But in Hindu-Christian riots of the last year that sporadically spawned from Bihar to Karnataka, fetid smell of Hinduvta politics pinned the NDA partners again. Thus explained Biju's decision.

But again, then question can be raised as to why BJP or for that matter Congress is losing bargaining power with the regional parties? In West Bengal, Congress is basically at the mercy of Mamata. So was BJP for a long time when she allied with NDA. Situation is no different in Orissa. Over the time BJD fortified while BJP tottered in Orissa. Why the national parties are waning out at the expense of reinforcement of the regional political parties?

It has to do with the power mongering custodians of national parties in Delhi. In order to retain control of Delhi over state, reward system in the national parties is paid with loyalty to Delhi and not to the people of the state. Let me cite example of West Bengal. During 1980-1995, Congress could not ferment any effective resistance movement against CP(I)M in the state. Why? Because state Congress leaders were paid for their loyalty to Delhi and not for their organizational work in the state. As a result, disgruntled Mamata Banerjee, who foresaw this vile reward system of national political parties realized that only a regional force truthful to the need of the state can fight against CPM. In last one decade, a lot of new faces from West Bengal joined Trinamul Congress but national Congress steadily lost their ground among new voters. Because in TMC, they saw a voice of their own, while in Congress it evolved around who is playing musical chair for being next favored of Gandhi family. If loyalty to Gandhi family becomes more important than solidarity with the people of West Bengal who suffered greatly at the hand of autocratic regime of CPM, clearly that national party will be losing the steam with the new generation. Not that Congress is only example. Even these days, CPM politburo is deciding what is the best for West Bengal. A glaring example is US-India nuclear deal. It would have opened opportunity for West Bengal as well but Prakash Karat opposed it without thinking how West Bengal would lose out both materially and politically.

Or take the case of Tapan Sikdar of state BJP in West Bengal. This founding member of state BJP envisioned that BJP would fail to register any growth in West Bengal if they depend on Mamata. But national BJP leadersip in Delhi imposed Mamata on him. Why? Because then in national level politics, BJP would manage 10-15 seats from West Bengal for NDA. Option of seclusion was as bad as a void bag from the state but a the same time, partnering with Mamata would also meant stagnation or possibly dessication of BJP in West Bengal. But natioanl BJP leaders emphasized on MP numbers ignoring Tapan Babu's warning. So Tapan Sikdar left state BJP and formed a local Hinduvta Manch only to return last week. Guess what-Tapan Sikdar was right. BJP would possibly lose its deposit in most of the seats in West Bengal this time. Whom to blame? National leadership of course!

Even in Maharastha, Sena politics will eclipse BJP one day because no matter how much we criticize them for parochialism, they are addressing the supplication of the local people. In wrong way-no doubt, but then why the national parties are not addressing the plight of the common people?

We can also think of Orissa as an example. It is one of the most poorest state with best kind of talented people. Orissa people are peace loving and last thing they want is imported rioters of Hinduvta. Yes, they are religious but not hateful. But this state experienced most gruesome violence by Hinduvta and surely a part of BJD was realizing how that was attributing to losing their political base. One has to remember that communalism is implicitly or explicitly favored by the educated and well-to-do part of the population. Impoverished section of our society hate it as they suffer most from the riot while affluent class use it to their political benefit. Hinduvta, soft or hard may fill up 90% of the Internet forums, but they do not represent toiling commoners of our country. Majority of the Indians are just struggling to live another day and they for sure, understand what is the best for India far better than overwhelming online Hinduvta preponderance.

In short all the national parties desperately need total democratic reform within the party that would allow their state comrades to act independently and be rewarded based on performance rather than loyalty to Delhi. If they fail to pull their act together quickly, regional parties would champion the cause and voice of the local people as they are doing now.